Analysis

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Demographic aging process in Romania and Europe

The population of Romania is part of a descending trend from 1990 to the present. The causes are multiple: low growing number of newborns, high number of older people, the increase of average lifetime and the strong migration to Western Europe.

In early 2012, in Romania were living, according to INS, 21.355.849 people, the vast majority (64.6%) being adults, 20.4% young and 15.0% – over age of 65.  The proportion of people aged 65 and over is higher among women (17,5%) than men(12,4%).

More than half of  romanian population have the residence in towns and cities, while 45.0% of people are living in rural areas.

Children from the early 90s are now adults, young people from today being significantly lower. On the other hand, it is noted that, nowdays, older individuals became a proportionally larger share of the total population than 20 years ago.

The degree of demographic aging ranks Romania in 24th place in Europe, in an ascending classification, according Eurosat. The highet values of this indicator are recorded in countries like Germany, where, 1.000 young people back 1.132 older persons, Italy (1107.0‰), Bulgaria (1032.2‰), Greece (1001.9‰) and Latvia (942.4‰). On the other hand, the youngest countries are represented by Azerbaijan (184.4‰), Turkey (217.8‰), Republic of Moldova (419.4‰), Irland (429.6‰).

The level of Demographic aging recorded in the 28 European Union countries, is 845.0‰, lower comparing with Ero Zone value (901.9‰) and higher than European Economic Community(UE28 countries plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway) – 842.0‰.

In Romania, the most significant demographic aging is recorded in Bucharest, closely followed by the south-west Region, West and South-Est of the country, where 1.000 young people at 19 years old or less back more than 1.000 people ages 65 and over.

The Demographic aging in northeast, central and northwest of the country, is gladdening but still with high values – 926.1‰, 919.5 ‰, respectively 912.5‰.

The county with the highest rate of aging is Teleorman (1.695 ‰), followed by Vaslui (1278.0‰) and Olt (1262.1 ‰). In contrast, the aging process affects the least people living in Iasi (710.4‰), Satu Mare (777.3‰) and Suceava (786.3‰).

In terms of demographic dependence ratio, in ascending ranking, Romania is ranked on 12th place among the countries of Europe. Having the lowest number of young and older adults reported to 1000 adults, Andorra has the first rank (492.2‰), followed by Moldova (506.5‰), Slovakia (522.7‰), Belarus (528.7‰) and Poland (536.6‰). On the opposite side is France which has the highest demographic dependency indicator in Europe (718.4‰), closely followed by Sweden (717.4‰), Denmark (708.2‰), Turkey(697.1‰) and Finland (685.3‰).

At Eu level, every 1.000 adults have to support 639 young and older, fewer than in the Euro Area (649.1‰), and European Economic Community countries (639.6‰). European Economic Area (EU-28 plus IS, LI, NO).

Northeastern Romania is characterized by the highest degree of demographic dependence (462.7‰) of the country, followed at a small difference by the southwestern regions (447.3‰), center (429.7‰), South east (428.6‰), northwest (426.6‰), south (422.8‰) and west (403.3 ‰). In Bucharest, for every 1.000 adults there are 374 young and old people, this being the lowest level of demographic dependency recorded.

Teleorman county also is the leader of a descendent top of demographic dependence, followed by Botosani(517.5‰), Calarasi (502.8‰), Valcea (502.4‰) and Giurgiu (499.9‰) counties. On the other hand, the lowest values are recorded in Bucharest (374.4‰) and Timis (378.5‰), Brasov (380.1‰), Ilfov (387.4‰) and Constanta (388.0‰).

The situation is not optimitic. Children from today, becoming fewer, will be tomorrow’s adults who will have to give financial support to adults, which over 20 years, will reach retirement age. The demographic aging degree will increase as well the ratio of demographic dependence.

 

Contact

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